ANYBODY LOOKING FOR SOME SNAKE OIL? THERE IS PLENTY OF IT AROUND AS THE FOLLOWING DEMONSTRATES.

Rick works with a real live computer modeler who has run some numbers for us. First he talks about the national budget numbers being tossed around as gospel... then he makes some professional assessments about the "global warming" modeling craze... that has a lot of folks (politicians, etc.) going crazy.

Tom is a humble guy as you will see if you go read his entire article... so he isn't into touting his stuff. He's just fed up with the lies and deceit coming out of Washington and the UN and Al Gore... you know... all those people who are hoping to cash in on their lying manipulations of feeble minded lap dogs.

...If the budget guys can't predict within 20% of each other what the economy will look like in the next ten years. And through tax policy, monetary policy, law making and regulatory policy they control many of the inputs. Common sense should tell you the degree to which some quasi-meteorologist is going to be right. Particularly when you consider that they are using essentially the same tools and mathematical techniques to forecast global warming over the next 50-100-200 years as are being used by the economist in the administration. I can tell you with 100% certainty that when someone says, “The median temperature of the earth will increase by 2 degrees Celsius by the year 2080 and that the increase will have effects A B or C" they are wrong, period.

The earth may heat by that amount or more or less. The affect may be A B or C or it may be K L or M. When the weather changes (and it always changes, after all what makes you think the weather is the same now as it was 200 years ago?) will it be because the output of the sun changed, the orbit of the earth changed, the magnetosphere of the earth changed (think it's constant? Just look at the shifting patterns of the northern lights), the reflectivity of the changes of the earth changed over time. (due to deforestation) or that concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere went up? The likelihood is that it was due to an interplay between all of these factors. I am not saying that things won't change. I am not saying that man couldn't be better stewards of the riches that we have been granted.

The point is, that the interplay of these factors is too complex for the weatherman to predict with any clarity what the weather will be a month from now much less with any precision, hell even tomorrows forecast has +/- swing of 4-8 degrees. People forecasting 10-20-50-100-200 years from now, give me a break! Modeling and simulation give you a best guess. The snakeoil salesmen selling global warming never disclose the "guess" portion of the analysis, they state it as gospel and expect people to change based upon their guess....

computer modeler via Brutally Honest